Would More Compulsory Schooling Help Disadvantaged Youth?  Evidence From Recent Changes to School-Leaving Laws

Abstract:

Dropout rates in the United States have fallen little since the 1970s, and  today remain disproportionately high among blacks, Hispanics, and children from low-income families. Many states have considered raising the minimum school leaving age as a means to improve these outcomes. The decision to do so is complicated, because it involves predicting costs and benefits for all individuals. Several states have already raised the school leaving age above 16, although often with exceptions. This paper uses these recent changes in order to estimate the effects of further compulsory schooling. The results suggest that more restrictive laws reduced dropout rates, increased college enrollment, and improved career outcomes. Some caution is warranted, since focusing on recent law changes leads to higher imprecision. However, generally, the consistent findings in previous studies suggest that compulsory high school at later ages can benefit disadvantaged youth.

Current draft, September, 2007

NBER Working Paper

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