2006 Project LINK Fall Meeting
October
30-November 1, 2006
United Nations, Geneva
Agenda
Monday October 30
10:00 -10:15 Opening Address
Chair : Lawrence Klein
Dirk Jan Bruinsma, Deputy Secretary General, UNCTAD
10:15 – 13:00 Global Economic Outlook
Chair: Heiner Flassbeck
Presentations:
b. IMF (Thomas Helbling)
c. World Bank (Hans Timmer)
Leading discussants:
Peter Richardson (OECD, Paris)
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch
13:25 – 13:55 Special session: Introduction of a new modeling framework for the world
economy – prospective cooperation between the World Bank and the
Speaker: Hans Timmer (World Bank)
14:00 – 17:30 Global and regional issues (1)
Chair: Bert Hickman
Panel discussion one:
Global adjustment and employment growth
Speakers: Lawrence Jeff Johnson and Christoph Ernst (ILO)
Panel discussion of inflation and employment trade-offs:
United States: Lawrence Klein (LINK)
Germany: Torsten Schmidt (RWI)
Asia: Pami Dua (Delhi University)
Contributions from the floor on inflationary trends and policy implications: selected European participants
Tuesday October 31
9:30 – 13:00 Global and regional issues (2)
Chair: Byron Gangnes
Panel discussion two:
The world oil market and prospects for oil price developments
Lead presentation: Robert Kaufmann (Boston University)
Panel discussion with regional perspectives regarding the impact of higher oil prices on low-income countries: participants from ECA, ESCAP and ECLAC
Panel discussion three:
Management of foreign reserves and exchange rate policy in developing countries
Lead presentation: Ramon Moreno (BIS)
Panel discussion with regional perspectives:
Latin America: Eustaquio Reis ( IPEA), Arturo O’Connell (Central Bank of Argentina) (relevant document)
Asia: Dongchul Cho (KDI), Tongsan Wang (CASS)
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch
13:25 – 13:55 Special session: An Area-wide Real Time Database for the Euro-Area
Speaker: Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)
14:00 – 17:30 Current Issues in Modeling Global Linkages and International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Chair: Roberto Mariano
Modeling the Adjustment of Global Imbalances: the IMF experience
Speaker: Selim Elekdag (IMF)
The World Bank LINKAGE model: adjusting trade balances in a CGE framework
Speaker: Hans Timmer and Dominique van de Mensbrugghe (World Bank)
Policy Coordination and the Oxford World Macroeconomic Model
Speaker: John Walker (Oxford Economic Forecasting)
Discussants: Peter Pauly (University of Toronto), Rob Vos (UN-DESA)
Wednesday, November 1
9:30 – 13:00 Global modeling issues (2)
Chair: Thomas Wilson
Speakers: Francis Cripps (Alphametrics Ltd.) and Alex Izurieta (Cambridge
University) (paper)
Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and the NIESR model
Speaker: Ray Barrell (NIESR, London)
International Policy Coordination
Speaker: Steve Hall (University of Leicester) (paper)
Towards a New OECD Global Model: Strategy and Developments
Speaker: Peter Richardson (OECD)
Discussants: Hans Timmer (World Bank); Pingfan Hong (UN-DESA)
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch
13:25 – 13:55 Special session: Software Applications for Econometric Forecasting. Special
Case – Current Quarter Model for China
Speaker: Vladimir Eskin (PROGNOZ)
14:00 – 16:00 Global modeling issues (3)
Chair: Peter Pauly
Critical review of global models and quantitative analysis of policy coordination: Summing up of conference and current issues and prospects for global models
Speakers: Ken Wallis (Warwick University); Lawrence Klein (LINK)
16:00-17:00 Business meeting and closing session
Chair: Peter Pauly